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Pres. Arroyo smiles as she predicts a better economy

What to expect

What’s 2007 going to be like? By the looks of it, two things will have the biggest imprint on the year that’s barely begun: the elections and the economy. Other issues that could loom large in the national scene are the impending Sandiganbayan decision on the plunder case of former President Joseph Estrada and the clamor to extend the agrarian-reform program. In this composite outlook, The Times’ reporters present their take on how the year is going to shape up. What to expect What’s 2007 going to be like? By the looks of it, two things will have the biggest imprint on the year that’s barely begun: the elections and the economy. Other issues that could loom large in the national scene are the impending Sandiganbayan decision on the plunder case of former President Joseph Estrada and the clamor to extend the agrarian-reform program. In this composite outlook, The Times’ reporters present their take on how the year is going to shape up.

The elation and the dread
Sam Mediavilla senses both rejoicing and concern in Malacañang.

President Arroyo welcomed the New Year buoyed by the peso’s robust performance. On the first trading day of 2007 the peso closed 48.915 to the dollar, much stronger than the 49.03 on the last trading day of 2006.

Malacañang attributed the strength of peso not only to the steady stream of remittances from overseas Filipino workers and the perking up of the stock market but also to the economic reform measures that the government set in place in early 2006.

Bangko Sentral ng Pili-pinas Governor Amado Tetangco Jr. was equally upbeat, citing the country’s solid economic fundamentals and improving fiscal performance. Finance Secretary Margarito Teves chose to be cautious, saying the rosy projections about the economy were only temporary and that growth would probably slow down in the second quarter because of the elections.

Another factor that could weigh on the economy is the restiveness over some of Mrs. Arroyo’s political decisions. The backlash from her approval of the nighttime transfer of US Marine Lance Corporal Daniel Smith from the Makati City Jail to the US Embassy in Manila could be particularly telling. Political observers believe the custody issue could fuel a new impeachment case against the President in June.

But what the administration dreads most is the senatorial election, where its candidates are up against a potent opposition line-up. The head-to-head match-up will emerge when the administration and opposition camps finalize their tickets in time for the submission of the certificates of candidacy beginning January 14.

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Dynasties will still hold sway in Congress
In the House of Representatives, Maricel V. Cruz expects the persistence of political dynasties and Charter change finally breathing its last.

At least 61 representatives may be bowing out after completing their tenure, but they are making sure that their seats stay in the family by fielding a close relative in their stead.

Some third-term lawmakers could be moving on to the Senate after the elections. They include House Minority Leader Francis “Chiz” Escudero of Sorsogon, Representatives Juan Miguel Zubiri of Bukidnon, Allan Peter Cayetano of Taguig-Pateros, Gilbert Teodoro of Tarlac, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd of Tarlac and Prospero Pichay of Surigao del Norte.

Others House members like Robert Ace Barbers of Surigao del Norte and Imee Marcos are reportedly running for local seats, or for governor in their provinces.

Barbers and Marcos will likely trade places with their siblings; Barbers with incumbent Surigao del Norte Governor Lyndon Barbers, and Marcos with Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.

Political dynasties will continue to rule, despite countless proposals designed to level the political field.

Cha-cha on its last legs

Despite efforts to keep it alive when Congress resumed session on January 22, the plan to amend the 1987 Constitution will be on its death throes when the next Congress opens in June.

Some administration allies, particularly Eduardo Veloso of Leyte and Benasing Maca-rambon, have said that if Charter change did not prosper now, the chances of it surviving will “definitely be slim.”

But never-say-die Cha-cha advocates Speaker Jose de Venecia and House Majority Leader Prospero Nograles have not thrown in the towel. “This is historic. This is the only time Charter-change proponents were able to gather millions of signatures from the people supporting the initiative,” Nograles has said.

Impeachment redux

President Arroyo’s worst nightmare may come true if the opposition dominates the House of Representatives in the Fourteenth Congress.

About 80 members of the minority bloc or a third of the House membership is required for an impeachment complaint against President Arroyo to prosper.

Surveys late last year gave opposition candidates a greater chance of winning in the mid-term polls.

At present only 38 of the 230 House members, including those from progressive party-list groups, make up the opposition.

And because the question of President Arroyo’s legitimacy, allegations of graft and corruption under her administration, and cheating in the 2004 elections have remained unresolved, the threat to impeach Mrs. Arroyo is very real.

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The wind-up to the Erap trial
Jomar Canlas expects a busy calendar for the Supreme Court, the Court of Appeals and the Sandiganbayan as they tackle high-profile cases left over from 2006.

The Sandiganbayan Special Division, chaired by Presiding Justice Teresita Leonardo-de Castro, is in the process of receiving the “Offer of Evidence” from the prosecution and the defense in the plunder case against former President Estrada.

A decision could be out by the first or second quarter of the year.

Estrada is accused of allegedly receiving huge commissions from the Ilocos Sur tobacco excise tax and jueteng operations.

The Smith custody controversy

The Court of Appeals may have ruled the petition of US Marine Lance Corporal Daniel Smith as moot after his transfer to the US Embassy in Manila just before New Year. But the battle for the custody of Smith may shift to the Supreme Court. “Nicole,” the Filipina he was convicted of raping, has promised to see the custody case through.

The Supreme Court is also expected to tackle side issues to the custody case, including the disbarment charges against Justice Secretary Raul M. Gonzalez, Interior and Local Government Undersecretary Marius Corpus and Chief Presidential Legal Counsel Sergio Apostol. Atty. Rene Saguisag, who filed the case, said the three allowed the transfer of Smith from the Makati City Jail to the embassy.

The Court of Appeals is also expected to rule on the contempt charges Nicole filed against the officials who she said defied the Makati judge who ordered Smith detained at the city jail. Presiding Justice Ruben Reyes assured the public: “The case shall be decided purely on the merits, no pressure is allowed.”

The nursing test leak

The Supreme Court will review the appellate court’s decision ordering the immediate oath-taking of the 17,000 nursing board examinees who were in the original list of board passers released by the Professional Regulation Commission (PRC).

CA Associate Justice Vic-ente Veloso, who will write the decision in the case, has asked the PRC and the Department of Labor and Employment to consider their ruling on October 13, 2006, ordering a “selective retake” of the tests as “immediately executory.”

The Liberal Party split

The leadership contest in the Liberal Party between the Manila Mayor Lito Atienza and Sen. Franklin Drilon is to be decided by the Supreme Court before the start of the May elections.

Atienza and Drilon claim to be the legitimate presidents of the party and have even established their own wings. Atienza had set a party convention and election last year, but Drilon got a temporary restraining order from the Court under then-Chief Justice Artemio Panganiban.

“Merciless” Merceditas

After Ombudsman Maria Merceditas Gutierrez cleared Commission on Elections Chairman Benjamin Abalos and his commissioners of accountability in the P1.3-billion computerization deal with the Mega-Pacific Consortium, will the case of the $2-million bribe former justice secretary Her-nando Perez allegedly received from the IMPSA power contract be the next big case?

Gutierrez promised a ruling soon in the case involving her former boss at the justice department. She vowed to be “merciless” to those who violated the law.

“If evidence would warrant, file the case in court,” Gutierrez said.

Rebellion charges

Up for resolution is the rebellion case before the Department of Justice filed by the National Bureau of Investigation and the police against former Sen. Gregorio Hon­asan, Ambassador Roy Señ­eres, former UP president Francisco Nemenzo, Pastor “Boy” Saycon and 50 other respondents for allegedly joining a plot to overthrow the Arroyo administration in February 2006.

The justice department panel of prosecutors headed by Senior State Prosecutor Deanna Perez said the case has been submitted for resolution.

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More preschools and Madrasah teachers
Jonathan M. Hicap outlines the game plan the education secretary has laid out for his department this year.

The establishment of preschools in more than 2,000 barangays in the country, hiring of more Madrasah teachers and supervisors and the lowering of the classroom-to-student ratio to 1:45 highlight the Department of Education’s new thrust for 2007.

Education Secretary Jesli Lapus said preschools will be set up in 1,951 barangays without private preschools or day-care centers and in another 249 barangays under the National Preschool Education Program. This will increase DepEd’s preschool coverage to 220,350 five-year-old children.

DepEd will hire more Madrasah teachers and supervisors and that Madrasah books covering Islamic Values and Arabic Language will be mass-produced.

Another vital DepEd program that promotes relevance of basic education is the Madrasah Education Program. Formulated two years ago, the standard curriculum for Madrasah Education provides basic education competencies as well as lessons in Islamic Values and Arabic language for Muslim Filipino students.

In 2006, DepEd launched the massive training of Madrasah teachers so that the program could accommodate more Muslim students in more regions throughout the country.

DepEd is also focusing on the perennial problem of large class sizes in public schools. Lapus said this year, DepEd aims to lower the classroom-to-pupil ratio to 1:45 to prevent congestion. About 6,000 news classrooms will be built this year and 4,500 existing classrooms will be repaired.

In 2006, DepEd built 13,242 new classrooms, more than twice the 6,000-classroom target set under the Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan 2010. These were built in areas that either have acute classroom shortage or are without existing, permanent classrooms.

“We will work toward reducing class sizes from 50 students for every class to 45 by next school year. This should enable our children to learn better inside the classrooms,” Lapus said.

The DepEd will also strive to improve the competency of teachers through training and development. Under the plan, DepEd will build up a core staff of science and mathematics supervisors and master teachers, train education managers throughout the country, and hone the skills of nonteaching personnel through an expected increase in national government appropriations for training and development in 2007.

The DepEd has invested more than P500 million on teacher training last year.

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Free-for-all for mayor in Manila
Katrice Jalbuena predicts a wide-open race for mayor in Manila.

Who’s going to be next big boss of Manila’s City Hall? At the moment it’s tough to call. But let’s start with who’s not running.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson had been touted as a strong contender. But last week he suddenly announced he was dropping out of the race and would be running for reelection in the Senate. His reason—he said he failed to meet residency requirements—was so lame political observers were trying to figure out if he had cut a deal with another aspirant, Sen. Alfredo Lim.

Another noncandidate is incumbent Mayor Lito Atienza, but that’s because he is serving his last and third term. Atienza’s anointed successor appears to be his son Ali, who, as chairman of the Inner City Development committee, is in charge of road repair and other infrastructure-based projects. Ali has been seen lately by his father’s side, wearing his father’s signature flowered shirts.

The young Atienza could face some tough competition from old hand Vice-Mayor Danny Lacuña and Lim, a former mayor. Lim has long had a falling out with Atienza, and now he wants to get his old turf back.

Other mayoralty hopefuls include Representatives Joey Hizon of the Fifth District and Rodolfo Bacani of the Fourth District.

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Heated fight in Pasig, San Juan
Francis Earl A. Cueto expects the face-off between the incumbent mayor and the congressman in Pasig City to be a slam-bang affair.

It will young blood versus old school as Rep. Robert “Dodot” Jaworski Jr. of Pasig squares off against Mayor Vicente “Enteng” Eusebio. The two have been bitter rivals with Jaworski taking issue with Eusebio over the shabu tiangge and Ultra stampede controversies, so nobody expects one to give the other any quarter during the election. In December Jaworski narrowly escaped death when his car caught fire and exploded moments after he, his brother and driver jumped out.

Guns, goons and gold will definitely play be big role in the polls in Pasig.

In San Juan, two questions crop up. First, after Mayor Joseph Victor Ejercito of San Juan got the edge over Sen. Loi Estrada, the question of who among the Estrada clan will take over the municipality, a bailiwick of Joseph Estrada.

Rumors have it that since Loi Estrada may run for the mayoralty post instead.

The second question is who would be brave enough to challenge the Estradas come May?

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An appeal for more time for land reform to take root
Katrina April Mennen A. Valdez notes the urgency in the appeal of agrarian officials to extend CARP beyond 2008.

There is still a lot to be done. This sums up the sentiments of agrarian-reform authorities as the government’s Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) comes to an official close next year.

Narciso B. Nieto, agrarian undersecretary for field operations, said a total of 1.3 million hectares of land is yet to be distributed to the farmers from 2007 onwards. That means at least seven more years is needed to fulfill the CARP mission.

“Just before the 2006 ended we discovered a significant number of lands which was not originally part of the CARP scope and coverage; it is still for distribution to more than one million farmers. That is why we need more or less seven years,” Nieto said.

Since CARP went into effect in 1988 more than three million hectares have been parceled out to farmers nationwide. Each farmer receives an average of 1.3 hectares. What is sorely lacking are the support services for the beneficiaries.

To Nieto, the unfinished task is mind-boggling. “Adding the one more million farmers who will receive the remaining land [for distribution] needs other services like the farm to market road, capital, agricultural facilities and access to credit facilities. Those are still part of the CARP program, and we have to give it to them, simply because our objective is to uplift the lives of the farmers,” he said.

Agrarian Reform Undersecretary for support services Khaliq C. Madueño said that out of 1,704 agrarian-reform communities (ARC), which have more than three million members, only half has benefited from support services.

“In terms of farm to market road, capital, agricultural facilities, and access to credit facilities and other services, we have served the 50 percent of the total members, while the other half is still waiting for our service, that is why we need more time,” Madueño said.

He said it is not easy for them to serve everyone. “Lack of funding is a primary obstacle, we would like to extend because our efforts would be wasted if we fail to give the remaining members the support they need,” Madueño said. “If a farmer obtains a land, then he does not have the mechanisms to operate, the tendency is he would sell his stake, then all our efforts would be wasted. We just want to sustain the gains.”

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A clash between the old and the new
In southern Metro Manila, Jonathan M. Hicap anticipates at least two mayors giving way to their spouses in the election.

Incumbent Rep. Cynthia Villar will also seek reelection. Their team is now looking for a replacement for Vice-Mayor Louie Bustamante, who is now on his third and last term.

The Aguilars have not lost an election in Las Piñas and they aim to keep it that way.

Mayor Imelda Aguilar will not seek reelection, but her husband, former mayor Nene Aguilar, will run in her stead.

Senate President Manny Villar started his career as Las Piñas congressman, becoming the Speaker of the House of Representatives from 1998 to 2001. When he ran for senator, his wife, Cynthia, replaced him as Las Piñas representative.

In Parañaque, Mayor Florencio Bernabe is running again. Challenging him will be Vice-Mayor Anjo Yllana, a host of the popular noontime show, Eat Bulaga.

Bernabe’s spokesman, Nelson Lacambra, said the mayor has yet to choose his congressman and vice-mayor.

Lacambra said Yllana may yet end up as Bernabe’s running mate.

“He [Yllana] knows that he will lose to Bernabe. Remember, he joined Lakas, which is Bernabe’s political party,” Lacambra said.

In Taguig, Mayor Freddie Tinga will run for a third and last term. A caucus is scheduled for his party, the Kilusang Diwa ng Taguig, to select the party’s candidates for congressman and vice-mayor.

Taguig residents will elect two congressmen as provided by Taguig’s new status as a city. The First District will comprise the lower barangays of Taguig and Pateros and the Second District will comprise the upper barangays.

Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano of Taguig has not announced if he will run for senator or mayor. Surveys showed that he is in the Top 5 candidates among Senate aspirants. He is now on his last term as congressman.

In Muntinlupa, Vice-Mayor Aldrin San Pedro will go up against Loretta Fresnedi, wife of Mayor Jaime Fresnedi, who is on his last term. Incumbent Rep. Ruffy Biazon will run against broadcaster Ricardo Puno.